growing point
17 July 2020 0 comments
I am sure that neither this nor any other crisis is able to give the entrepreneur new knowledge and teach something. The situation in the country has once again proved the obvious: "cheap" and economical projects are in relative safety. And all others - with a gastronomic component, interesting and original - are subject to serious stresses.
DOWNED BY WAVE
Those who came to our business solely for profit will once again be convinced: we need to focus on something very democratic. For those for whom the restaurant industry is art, hobbies, if you want, life, those who work not for revenue, but in the name of creating something big, the crisis will serve as another signal that, unfortunately, everything is very risky and you can go bankrupt overnight. And if so, is it worth doing all this?
After the quarantine ends, 50% of the Russian restaurant market will certainly cease to exist. Two waves of closure await us. The first one surfaced now. It was provoked by various reasons, but among the main ones - a lack of money, a huge cash gap and the inability to conduct current activities due to the lack of agreements with the landlord (entrepreneurs simply cannot continue to pay rent, so they are forced to close their projects).
And the second wave will be a little later, after the surviving restaurants begin work again. Moreover, some will open due to excessive optimism, hoping that somehow they will slip. Others simply from the very beginning will not be able to correctly calculate whether they will have enough money for full-fledged work in new realities. However, after the restart, the guest flow will be much lower than the pre-crisis one, and the restaurant will not have enough revenue even for elementary activities, not to mention covering previous expenses. In other words, institutions will open with a large financial hole, hoping to somehow solve this issue on the go. But in fact, the gap will only widen. And before the end of the year, a number of closures will happen. The second wave will be no less than the first.
WHO WILL BE LUCKY?
The most vulnerable segment of the market will be restaurants with an average check. Their guests will smoothly flow into more democratic institutions. Incomes of the population have decreased, people will save and, accordingly, spend less. Therefore, if we are talking about the fast food segment, there is a chance that they will even add, their indicators will go up.
The average restaurant will lose a lot. But the expensive price format may survive, because it has its own consumer. Let the number of these guests not be so large, but they will remain there.
Big companies will have to be more difficult than others. They have a large staff, they are less mobile, it is more difficult for them to rebuild their work, unlike single projects.
True, large corporations also have their advantages: more "brains" are concentrated in them, which can respond to a crisis situation faster and offer a way out. Such companies also have more money. A single restaurateur, of course, will miss all this. But anyway a point project is much easier to survive in a crisis than a "grid."
BE OR NOT BE?
We work in a low-margin market and have long been accustomed to saving. I guess there's hardly a way to save even more. Now each of us must develop our own survival strategy in the market. Today it is necessary to lay in the plan an increase in selling prices for products by about 20%, review the rental conditions, optimize the FOT and be ready for the fact that there will be at least half as many guests. It is necessary to build a new economic model and decide whether it is possible to adapt your restaurant for it or it is easier to close.
What are the difficulties in overcoming the crisis? With a lack of money, with a lack of products (many suppliers will go bankrupt and leave the market), with rising prices for them. But to assemble a strong team, I think, will be easier: the closure of a large number of restaurants will provide the labor market with professional personnel. However, for institutions in which staff training is very important, replacing experienced employees with new ones will also entail new problems, because the training of recruited personnel will require funds that simply do not exist.
DOWNED BY WAVE
Those who came to our business solely for profit will once again be convinced: we need to focus on something very democratic. For those for whom the restaurant industry is art, hobbies, if you want, life, those who work not for revenue, but in the name of creating something big, the crisis will serve as another signal that, unfortunately, everything is very risky and you can go bankrupt overnight. And if so, is it worth doing all this?
After the quarantine ends, 50% of the Russian restaurant market will certainly cease to exist. Two waves of closure await us. The first one surfaced now. It was provoked by various reasons, but among the main ones - a lack of money, a huge cash gap and the inability to conduct current activities due to the lack of agreements with the landlord (entrepreneurs simply cannot continue to pay rent, so they are forced to close their projects).
And the second wave will be a little later, after the surviving restaurants begin work again. Moreover, some will open due to excessive optimism, hoping that somehow they will slip. Others simply from the very beginning will not be able to correctly calculate whether they will have enough money for full-fledged work in new realities. However, after the restart, the guest flow will be much lower than the pre-crisis one, and the restaurant will not have enough revenue even for elementary activities, not to mention covering previous expenses. In other words, institutions will open with a large financial hole, hoping to somehow solve this issue on the go. But in fact, the gap will only widen. And before the end of the year, a number of closures will happen. The second wave will be no less than the first.
WHO WILL BE LUCKY?
The most vulnerable segment of the market will be restaurants with an average check. Their guests will smoothly flow into more democratic institutions. Incomes of the population have decreased, people will save and, accordingly, spend less. Therefore, if we are talking about the fast food segment, there is a chance that they will even add, their indicators will go up.
The average restaurant will lose a lot. But the expensive price format may survive, because it has its own consumer. Let the number of these guests not be so large, but they will remain there.
Big companies will have to be more difficult than others. They have a large staff, they are less mobile, it is more difficult for them to rebuild their work, unlike single projects.
True, large corporations also have their advantages: more "brains" are concentrated in them, which can respond to a crisis situation faster and offer a way out. Such companies also have more money. A single restaurateur, of course, will miss all this. But anyway a point project is much easier to survive in a crisis than a "grid."
BE OR NOT BE?
We work in a low-margin market and have long been accustomed to saving. I guess there's hardly a way to save even more. Now each of us must develop our own survival strategy in the market. Today it is necessary to lay in the plan an increase in selling prices for products by about 20%, review the rental conditions, optimize the FOT and be ready for the fact that there will be at least half as many guests. It is necessary to build a new economic model and decide whether it is possible to adapt your restaurant for it or it is easier to close.
What are the difficulties in overcoming the crisis? With a lack of money, with a lack of products (many suppliers will go bankrupt and leave the market), with rising prices for them. But to assemble a strong team, I think, will be easier: the closure of a large number of restaurants will provide the labor market with professional personnel. However, for institutions in which staff training is very important, replacing experienced employees with new ones will also entail new problems, because the training of recruited personnel will require funds that simply do not exist.